000			02849cam a2200361 a 4500
001			5131
003			BD-DhEWU
005			20190303092301.0
008			151011s1999 njua g b 001 0 eng d
010			_a 98034877
020			_a0691012180 (alk. paper)
020			_a9780691012186
035			_a797312350
040			_aDLC _cDLC _dDLC _dBD-DhEWU _beng
041			_aeng
050	0	0	_aHB3711 _b.D54 1999
082	0	4	_a338.5420151 _bDIB 1999
100	1		_aDiebold, Francis X. _919906
245	1	0	_aBusiness cycles : _bdurations, dynamics, and forecasting / _cFrancis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch.
260			_aPrinceton, N.J. : _bPrinceton University Press, _cc1999.
300			_axiii, 420 p. : _bill. ; _c25 cm.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references and indexes.
505			_tTOC _aPrefaceAcknowledgmentsPt. IIntroduction1Questions about Business Cycles5Pt. IIBusiness Cycle Durations2Have Postwar Economic Fluctuations Been Stabilized?353Shorter Recessions and Longer Expansions544A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle645Further Evidence on Business Cycle Duration Dependence876Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective1177Regime Switching with Time-Varying Transition Probabilities144Pt. IIIBusiness Cycle Dynamics8Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: A Reexamination1699The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP19410The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment20711Long Memory and Persistence in Aggregate Output21912Is Consumption Too Smooth? Long Memory and the Deaton Paradox24113On the Power of Dickey-Fuller Tests against Fractional Alternatives258Pt. IVBusiness Cycle Forecasting14The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting26715Scoring the Leading Indicators29016Turning Point Prediction with the Composite Leading Index: An Ex Ante Analysis31617Forecasting Output with the Composite Leading Index: A Real-Time Analysis34218New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance36119Comparing Predictive Accuracy387Name Index413Subject Index419
520			_aSummary: Offers an econometric analysis of business cycles. This book addresses five principal questions about the measurement, modeling, and forecasting of business cycles. It asks whether business cycles have become more moderate in the postwar period, concluding that recessions have, in fact, been shorter and shallower.
526			_aEconomics
590			_aTahur Ahmed
650		0	_aBusiness cycles _xStatistical methods. _919907
650		0	_aBusiness forecasting _xStatistical methods. _919908
700	1		_aRudebusch, Glenn D. _919909
856	4	2	_3WorldCat details _uhttp://www.worldcat.org/title/business-cycles-duration-dynamics-and-forecasting/oclc/797312350&referer=brief_results
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